As Governor Bukola Saraki’s second term gradually comes to an end in 2011, EMMANUEL ADDEH writes on the unfolding intrigues over who succeeds him
Uneasy calm; that is what presently pervades the political atmosphere in Kwara State. But for the politically perceptive minds, this quiet remains a facade, given the political storm that is already gathering and waiting to let loose in the state‘s political arena.
Forced peace; deafening echoes of a very loud silence and what many describe as political slow motion, decreed by the state‘s kingmaker and his begotten have combined to conceal what close political analysts regard as a raging tempest.
Like an illusory rain, a part of the state‘s political sky looks gray and ominous, while the rest of the sky appears bright and blue. To the obtuse, it remains mostly sunny, pleasant and breezy, but they are largely deceptive.
The struggle for the control of the state‘s Ahmadu Bello House has started in earnest and the clouds are getting clearer. The much reported ambition of the highly prized Second Republic Senator, Dr Olusola Saraki, to have a hand in who becomes the next governor of the state is gradually materialising.
Saraki, who is also the Chairman of the Northern Union, is believed to have already anointed his daughter and a serving Senator, Gbemisola, to take over from his son and present governor of the state, Bukola, in 2011.
Interestingly, the events in the last one week seemed to have confirmed insinuations that the floods were steadily converging and that those opposed to the senator‘s emergence as the next governor of the state might have soft-pedalled.
Initially, it was believed that the Muslim community in the state was opposed to the prospects of fielding Gbemisola on religious grounds, insisting that a woman could not lead a community of Muslim men.
Another issue which analysts believed would count against Gbemisola was the fact that the family already had more than enough mention in the leadership of the state. Besides Bukola, the governor, Gbemisola had spent some good number of years in the House of Representatives, even as Ope is a Special Adviser to his elder brother.
Also, Bukola is reportedly unfavourably disposed to the idea of the family fielding another member of the family on the grounds that he is the incumbent and therefore needs to stamp his independence from his father who it is believed unilaterally installed him in 2003.
But the governor‘s political base, analysts and political followers in the state argue, is still very thin and therefore he might be in no vantage position to go against his father who is in total control of happenings in the state.
However, calls for Gbemisola to contest the 2011 governorship poll in the state have been resonating – some very direct and others subtle.
Indeed, the unusual crowd at the Olorunsogo campaign office of the elder Saraki to mark Gbemi‘s birthday testified to the fact that the opposition to her emergence might be waning.
The birthday celebration turned political when the State Coordinator of Gbemi Vanguard, Ahmed Bayero, mounted the rostrum with a plea on Governor Bukola Saraki to sheathe his sword and allow the senator contest for the governorship seat in 2011.
He said, ”Gbemi Vanguard which is the leading political association for the actualisation of Senator Gbemisola Saraki come 2011 hereby appeals to our governor, Dr Bukola Saraki, to endorse Senator Gbemisola Saraki as the number one citizen come 2011. ‘We also appeal to other stakeholders in the PDP to give us Senator Gbemi.”
Bayero added, ”It is our belief that apart from being the best person to protect and preserve the Waziri‘s dynasty, her versatility, generosity, experience, exposure, achievements and contributions to humanity make her tower above all other pretending governorship aspirants. Senator Gemisola Saraki remains the only credible, worthy and acceptable choice.”
Similarly, the Magaji Nda of Ilorin and an influential member of the Muslim community, Alhaji Saliu Mohammed, in a subtle endorsement, advised women to be more active in politics, since, according to him, it was about resolution of conflicts and provision of comfort for the citizenry.
He explained that none of the Holy Books was against the emergence of a female in politics, adding that the controversy surrounding the belief that a woman cannot lead in politics was prompted by the kind of interpretation given by individual religions.
He said, “I have never seen where the holy Quran discriminates against anybody. Once the criteria are set out and anyone meets any of the qualifications, they are allowed to contest.”
But just as these tacit endorsements come her way, it has equally been a season of denials by all parties concerned in the drive towards 2011. For instance, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in the state said it had not endorsed any candidate for the 2011 governorship poll.
The party‘s Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Isiaka Danmairomo, in a statement said, “The present administration in the state is still on and discharging its responsibility to the people of the state diligently.
”The party believes in the projects embarked upon by the incumbent governor which touch the lives of the people. The party wishes to reiterate that no candidate has been picked for any post rather it is still waiting for guidelines from the national headquarters of PDP.
”The party wishes to make it clear that all those seeking to vie for any political post in the state should wait until the floor is declared open for politicking.”
The kingmaker and the man who unarguably wields the greatest influence in the state‘s politics and is usually credited with single-handedly installing every governor since the creation of the state, has also been playing down the purported disagreement with his son. The disagreement is also said to be causing serious apprehension among key government officials of the state as the loyalty to one party would be seen as disloyalty to the other.
Saraki, it will be recalled, had repeatedly said that it was too early to begin to discuss elections when he still had some time to go, adding that the political cohesion in the state did not warrant the usual noise making experienced in other states.
But despite the ‘handwriting on the wall‘ and the palpable drama involving the major political actors with the opposition almost non-existent, the elder Saraki has also denied endorsing any candidate for the 2011 governorship position.
He stated that his family was not divided over the issue, adding that he could never quarrel with his son over who succeeds him in 2011.
The elder statesman said, ”People want to see me and my beloved son fight on who succeeds him, just like what happened during Lawal‘s period. Bukola has done nothing wrong, he is doing his best for the state and I am proud of him. Why should I choose his successor for him when I know that he can do it himself.”
He also refuted speculations that he had anointed Gbemisola to succeed her brother in the 2011.
He said, “Those telling you I have endorsed a Senator or anyone else as governor are deceiving you. I have told you that I am still waiting for God to tell me who He wants and Gbemi has not told me or anyone that she wants to be governor.”
Again, even with this denial, there have been attempts to reduce the issue to a gender related one by the managers of the Gbemisola governorship campaign team. So far, they are harping on the need to allow a woman govern the state.
The Society for Women‘s Economic Empowerment as well as the Hope and Vision Foundation for Ilorin Emirate are toeing the same line of argument and are calling for equal participation by both men and women in the next political dispensation.
The SWEE, particularly, observed that until the society changed its attitude to women in politics and the wrongly held notion that women were incapable of holding public office dismantled, the Nigerian woman would continue to remain behind the scenes.
The Executive Director of the group, Hajia Nusirat Afolake, stated this in her paper entitled, ”Challenges Facing Women in the Third World Countries in Politics and Governance: Strategies for Improvement” presented on the occasion to mark the birthday of Gbemisola.
She said, ”For a feasible greater women participation in governance, there is the need to disarm the traditional Nigerian of the wrongly preconceived notion belittling the capabilities of women in general.”
She added that there was the need for government to protect the rights of women as members of the society, noting that all forms of discriminatory policies should be jettisoned.
Nonetheless, in spite of these divergent views, many event watchers in the state hold the view that it may again be a smooth ride for the veteran politician and ultimate commander-in-chief of Kwara politics to have his way in who becomes the governor of the state in 2011.
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